← Mana Pro Store Championship Singapore
Water AlliesTier 2
at Mana Pro Store Championship Singapore
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 20.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.3% | -5.6 |
| Fire Exia | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirited Neophyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xia Hou Dun, Gloryseeker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |